Sunday, June 22, 2014

1964 vs. 2014

In 1964, the average hourly wage in the US was about $3, which was also the cost of a barrel of oil.  Fifty years later, in 2014, the average hourly wage in the US is about $19, and a barrel of oil costs over $100.  This represents a loss in income of 81%, in real terms (of course, the US government obfuscates this with their bogus CPI, which strips out energy).

btw, minimum wage in 1964 was $1.25, and $7.25 in 2014...an increase  of 5.8x, vs. 38x for oil...a loss of 85% in real terms.

 Looking at other indicators, like gold and silver, is instructive: in 1964, an ounce of silver was worth $1.29, and today about $20, a 15-fold increase, while gold was set officially at $35 then, and today is $1315, a 38-fold increase.  So, in 1964, an average worker was getting 2.3 ounces of silver an hour, and today just one, a 57% loss in purchasing power.  For gold, a worker might need to work 12 hours for an ounce of the yellow stuff, and now would need to work 69 hours, an 83% loss in buying power (btw, this tells me that silver may be undervalued relative to gold or oil).

To have the same lifestyle that a factory worker in 1964 had, earning $6k per year, based on my ratio below using oil as the standard for quality of life, requires $200k today.  In other words, an average worker who earned $6k in 1964 was earning 2000 barrels of oil annually, to earn 2000 barrels a year now would require $200k, assuming $100 per barrel (the price Friday was $115, so in actuality, it may be even higher to reach that same standard).  One of the only reasons American workers and others in developed countries hadn't 'noticed' that things have gotten much worse is that both spouses have been working for the most part, and hours worked per worker are also up (many are 'forced overtime'), often with no benefits, vacation or pensions, plus families are having fewer kids, and having them later in life (from 3.5 births per woman in 1964 to less than 2 today in the US).

Unfortunately, we have had a redistribution system for the past 6+ years in the US and more or less all countries, and it is going upward, to those that have the most already, courtesy of effectively free money for big banks and their cronies, which erodes the earning/purchasing power of the rest (i.e., the victory of capital over labor). Start paying everyone in gold or silver, or just end limitless money printing, and we may see some re-establishment of balance, but the elephant in the room is, of course, the end of cheap energy that had fueled middle-class lifestyles for the past 50-70 years.  That is all over now.

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